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台风“安比”疯狂北上力量何来?

科技日报 2018-07-25 作者:付丽丽

  台风“安比”来到了华北。据中央气象台消息,24日14时,“安比”位于河北唐山市境内,北纬39.9度,东经118.3度,外围最大风力8级(18米/秒),990百帕。过去1小时向东北方向移动了约45公里。

  台风何以能够深入内地,甚至到达东北?

  “影响我国的台风与副热带高压位置有关,如果副热带高压距离我国东部沿海或陆地比较近,而北边的冷空气又相对较弱,对其削弱得慢,台风一般就会长驱直入,到达华北甚至东北。”24日,中央气象台首席预报员许映龙在接受科技日报记者采访时说。

  具体到此次,许映龙表示,台风“安比”能够以热带风暴级强度继续北上的原因有两个:一是登陆后的行进路线靠近海岸线,这使得“安比”有一半结构留在海上,一半在陆地,海洋上源源不断的水汽和良好的环境助其保持“形体”;二是地形相对平缓。江苏、山东大部地区以平原丘陵为主,坡度较缓、起伏小,对于减弱台风强度影响不大。

  受台风“安比”及其后期残余系统和冷空气的共同影响,至25日,山东北部、河北东部、北京中东部、天津、辽宁西部、吉林西部、黑龙江中西部、内蒙古东北部等地有大到暴雨,局地有大暴雨(累计降雨量100毫米—200毫米);其中京津冀地区主要强降雨时段在23日夜间至24日白天。

  据介绍,与北京汛期往常的降雨相比,此次台风“安比”带来的降雨具有短时雨强大,并可能伴有雷电等显著特点,且东部地区可能有6级左右阵风。

  需要注意的是,目前看,影响北京的很有可能只是台风“安比”的外围云系,而不是其主体云系,其降雨强度与台风直接影响明显不同。但由于台风移动路径和强度变化受大气环流和地形等多种因素影响,其中心位置的些许摆动和强度的变化,都会造成北京地区降雨落区和强度的变化,为预报带来巨大挑战。

  “未来,‘安比’将和冷空气共同作用,给东北多地带来强降雨。”许映龙说。

  其实,历史上,像“安比”这样登陆华东并一路北上的台风还有1984年第7号台风“芙瑞达”、1994年第6号台风“提姆”、1997年第11号台风“温妮”以及2005年第9号台风“麦莎”。除了“麦莎”外,“芙瑞达”“提姆”和“温妮”均影响到了黑龙江,可见其深入内陆的程度。同时,这3个台风都在深入内陆的过程中带来了大量的降雨。

  (科技日报北京7月24日电)

责任编辑:王超

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