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冷冬or暖冬?平均气温和极端事件“说了算”

科普中国-科学为你解疑释惑 2017-11-29

  伴随着呼呼的北风,人们纷纷裹上了厚厚的羽绒服,戴上了帽子和手套,将自己全副武装起来,准备迎接漫长的冬天。随着一波一波的寒潮向我们袭来,天气也变得越来越寒冷。有人说,好冷呀,今年应该是冷冬吧!但也有人说,有时候天气还是暖和的,应该是暖冬吧!这是什么情况?你知道如何判断冷冬和暖冬吗?

  冷冬和暖冬是如何定义的?

  据北方网消息,冷冬和暖冬都指的是整个冬季的气温情况,而不是某天或某一个时期的气温变化。暖冬期间可能会有大雪纷飞时的寒冷,冷冬里也能感受到阳光明媚时的温暖,这都是正常的。短期的气温高低只是“小插曲”,整个冬季的平均冷暖情况才是“主旋律”,不能仅凭眼前的冷暖就对整个冬天下冷冬或暖冬的结论。

  如何判断冷冬和暖冬?

  那么,我们该如何辨别冷冬与暖冬呢?中国工程院院士丁一汇在接受《北京晨报》采访时表示,气候的冷暖可通过两个参数描述,一是平均温度,一个冬天三个月里的平均温度如果超过多年平均值,就算暖冬;低于多年平均值,就是冷冬。另一个参数是极端事件,比如一个冬季的数天之中骤然猛烈降温,出现寒潮天气。丁一汇说,需要注意的是,即便温度平均值显示的是暖冬,也不等于就不会出现很强的寒潮。

  今年预计是暖冬

  今年是冷冬还是暖冬呢?国家气候中心首席气候专家王永光在接受人民网环保频道采访时表示,今年的模式预报和去年很类似,冬季可能会达到一个冷的峰值,甚至会发生一次弱的拉尼娜事件。但是综合分析来看,也有可能只发生一次像2016年一样的冷水的波动,并不形成事件。总的来说,通过前期的分析来看,预计今年还将是一个偏暖的情况。(孔睿)

  小贴士:拉尼娜的字面意思是“圣女”,是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海面温度持续异常偏冷的现象,是厄尔尼诺现象的反相,也称为“反厄尔尼诺”或“冷事件”。

  本文由北京市气象台首席预报员张琳娜进行科学性把关。

  

责任编辑:王超

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