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专家:朝核危机正出现转机?

来源:环球网 2018-01-03     

  在朝鲜最高领导人通过新年讲话放出积极信号后,韩国统一部长官赵明均2日举行记者会并表示,鉴于距平昌冬奥会开幕仅剩一个月等情况,政府向朝鲜提议9日在韩朝边界板门店“和平之家”举行韩朝高级别会谈,就朝鲜参加平昌冬奥会事宜进行磋商。

  韩国方面如此快速地对朝鲜积极信号做出反应,外界普遍认为,这对朝核危机来说是一个好消息。由于联合国、美韩和中国关于朝核问题的立场趋于一致,2018年朝核危机或许将迎来转机。而朝鲜也有可能在一段时间内暂缓进行新的核导试验,转求在经济发展与外交谈判方面取得突破。

  特朗普执政后一直声称要解决朝核问题,并认为过去25年与朝鲜谈判核问题是“浪费时间”,军事打击才是解决朝鲜核问题仅有的一种有效办法。朝鲜不得不顾忌继续挑战美国的忍耐度可能带来的严重后果。特朗普至今没有动手,原因既在于中俄韩坚决反对,也在于他的团队中至今有人坚持认为还存在“通过制裁迫使朝鲜改弦易辙”的可能性。

  不难判断,如果朝鲜有新的举动,特朗普极有可能将“已经摆在办公桌上”的军事打击方案付诸实施,原因有三:

  首先,美国有通过战争解决问题的传统,美国各派别在军事打击朝鲜问题上已经基本达成共识,特朗普需要继续树立“说话算数”的形象;

  其次,美军自认为拥有短时间内摧毁朝鲜境内所有重要军事设施,并破坏其指挥系统的能力;

  第三,通过军事打击一劳永逸地解决问题,美国的国际地位和特朗普的威望都会获得显著提升,而如听任朝鲜发展出打击美国全境的核导能力,美国会面临一连串的损失,包括美国的霸权地位、美国主导的世界秩序、美国在世界盟国中的信用等等。

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